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News@lemmy.worldEnglish · 13 days ago

Final US presidential election projections from Five Thirty Eight's and Nate Silver's models are out; both have an almost-perfect split in chances between candidates

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Final US presidential election projections from Five Thirty Eight's and Nate Silver's models are out; both have an almost-perfect split in chances between candidates

tal@lemmy.today to

News@lemmy.worldEnglish · 13 days ago

2

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

Harris wins 50 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 49 times out of 100.
There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.

Our 2024 forecast is final and no longer updating.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Last and final update: 12:30 a.m., Tuesday, November 5. Happy Election Day! At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases. She did not win in 39,988 simulations (49.985%). Of those, 39,718 were outright wins for Donald Trump and the remainder (270 simulations) were exact 269-269 Electoral College ties: these ties are likely to eventually result in Trump wins in the U.S. House of Representatives.

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13 days ago

Edit - disappointed how close this is…

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