https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Harris wins 50 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 49 times out of 100.
There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.
Our 2024 forecast is final and no longer updating.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Last and final update: 12:30 a.m., Tuesday, November 5. Happy Election Day! At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases. She did not win in 39,988 simulations (49.985%). Of those, 39,718 were outright wins for Donald Trump and the remainder (270 simulations) were exact 269-269 Electoral College ties: these ties are likely to eventually result in Trump wins in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Five Thirty Eight’s part of ABC News. Nate Silver isn’t really a news source as such, but given that he originally founded Five Thirty Eight and is a pretty well-known forecaster, I think that bundling up his essentially-identical results with Five Thirty Eight’s is a good idea, as his model had been tending to give Trump slightly-more-favorable results than Five Thirty Eight’s in the last couple of weeks. With all the information they’ll get in, both have the race about as close to being a dead heat as possible.
These numbers are a slight improvement for Harris, as both models had given a very small edge to Trump over the past several days.