Everything from crude oil to Big Tech stocks to the value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies fell. Even gold, which has hit records recently as investors sought something safer to own, pulled lower. Some of the worst hits walloped smaller U.S. companies, and the Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks dropped 5.9% to pull it more than 20% below its record.
Wall Street had long assumed Trump would use tariffs merely as a tool for negotiations with other countries, rather than as a long-term policy. But Wednesday’s announcement may suggest Trump sees tariffs more as helping to solve an ideological goal than just an opening bet in a poker game. Trump on Wednesday talked about wresting manufacturing jobs back to the United States, a process that could take years.
If Trump follows through on his tariffs, stock prices may need to fall much more than 10% from their all-time high in order to reflect the recession that could follow, along with the hit to profits that U.S. companies could take. The S&P 500 is now down roughly 11% from its record set in February.
“Markets may actually be underreacting, especially if these rates turn out to be final, given the potential knock-on effects to global consumption and trade,” said Sean Sun, portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management, though he sees Trump’s announcement on Wednesday as more of an opening move than an endpoint for policy.
The evidence that Trump’s Administration themselves cited in their official explanation of their tariff “calculations” (trade deficit / imports) flat out states that when the US tries to tariff other countries:
- American importers pay for the US tariff AND
- American exporters pay for the foreign retaliatory tariffs.
The source (Cavallo et al, 2021) clearly demonstrates that American tariffs are paid directly by Americans in both directions, meaning out of everyone on Earth, US tariffs screw the US the most. Trump’s administration legitimized the source by citing that research for its calculations on the tariff rates.
The Trade Representative’s explanation freely admits that the stupid parameters were chosen more or less arbitrarily, and they cited the paper to justify their position on tariff price throughput but conveniently didn’t list it in their “References” section.
Our analyses indicate that the price incidence of US import tariffs falls largely on the United States… Our results suggest that retailers are absorbing a significant share of the increase in the cost of affected imports by earning lower profit margins on those goods… [These analyses reveal] that the recent tariffs applied by foreign governments on US exports have affected total foreign import prices far less than was the case for the recent US tariffs
None of the supporters of this are going to read any of that.
Plenty of people supported Coolidge and Hoover until they felt it in their wallets. This is going to hurt, for everyone, and it will provide opportunities to change minds. Not just the minds of Trump supporters, but the minds of everyone who thinks there’s no point fighting. We have a lot of common ground opening up beneath our feet.
This is a terrible mistake for them to make. The Republican party has made this mistake before. It lead to the New Deal. History sure is rhyming, and things aren’t playing out quite the same, but we have a chance - however small it is - to take advantage of their mistake again, and turn things around.
tariffs merely as a tool for negotiations with other countries
Again, he doesn’t know or care about how tariffs work. It’s a tax. Not a negotiation. The dumbfuck doesn’t know HOW to negotiate unless it’s to benefit himself. Wall Street are equally as stupid.
To negotiate with another country, you simply visit them or contact them to actually you know - negotiate the best course of options or actions to take to make things a win-win for everyone. Something Trump never had.
He’s adding tariffs to uninhabited islands, and islands that do no trade with the US. He has no idea how any of this shit works.
Someone must have thrown a fish to a penguin there once, giving US a 100% trade deficit…
He actually knows. He acts like a dumbass but everything he does hurts West and helps Russia.
This is at the same time when Russia is growing their army to 2.4M with goal to march on Baltics and Poland.
The idea is that the US and Western Europe will be preoccupied with their own issues to do anything about it.
End of the day the Dow was down 1,679.39
Oh, good that I bought cryptos and etfs instea… Oh fuck.
Ah well, this timeline is this timeline. It’s all just going down the brown
I’ve never liked the argument crypto is good for diversification.
A lot of the studies on it are from pre-Covid when crypto was on a rocket ship, so the lack of correlation is actually a false signal.
I do own a bunch of crypto, but not as a diversification tool.
All Crypto is a scam designed to make you lose money, unless you can posess enough of it to manipulate its value and use it to take money from others.
Yeah I used to cynically buy shitcoin volatility…
I’m kind of bagholding some btc right now though.
Crypto is scammy for sure
Not really.
A lot of coins are scams, yes. But the concept of cryptocurrency has very valid uses in replacing the current fiat system perpetuated by governments.
Cryptocurrency is a fiat system perpetuated by scammers.
most of them, yes. most of them don’t have any real purpose than making a select few rich. but there’s also a few (1 or 2 so far as I know) that’s purpose is private payments over the internet, a purpose for which most of the others are basically useless
Yeah, I can tell you know nothing about what you’re talking about; just meming for the upvotes.
I’m just going to block you and move on. I encourage any sane adult to do the same, lest they lose more brain cells by reading your drivel.
Goodbye.
Sunken cost falacy has you shilling for scammers.
Sell your shitcoins and free yourself, you’re not getting that money back bud.
No. You just don’t understand the impact of cryptocurrency beyond what you’ve seen scammers push.
I’m going to ignore you now. Goodbye.
You don’t have to announce your departure this isn’t an airport
Bye bye scam victum with ego issues 🤪
If you look at the cryptocurrencies, they all go up and down with each other.
Really puts into perspective how far-reaching the investor class actually is.
It’s funny though, because to them, all those “nerd” coins might as well be the same.
Crypto, especially BTC, always nosedives with stocks.
You can make out ok if stocks are steady but inflation is rampant, but right now, there’s zero hype to pump BTC with.
It’s win win for Trump. Because him and his gangster members are now buying stock on massive discount. If stock goes up again again he can sell to his voters that it is his doing and how smart those tariffs are. Now the stock up is most likely not going to stick as an argument than the cheap buying but still. It will be used.
Time hr gets JFKed.
No but really was Thomas Crooks hired by Blackwater frfr?
I think you may have misread something. I just tried to search for that, and it seems that he was in a commercial for BlackRock, an investment firm, when he was in high school. They had a shot of a classroom that he was in, he was not a paid actor.
If he has also been hired by Blackwater, that has not been widely reported, and it seems unlikely.
I know the backstory that’s kinda the joke.
Dow falls 1400 points but its still at a massive 40k (nearly doubled in 5 years.) Its gonna take more than this little stunt to land Trumpy Dumps in any real hot water
The best way to hurt major political donors is to hit them in the wallet. Trump is cutting the MAGA lifeline, for himself and every other MAGA candidate. For that, I will gladly take the pain.
When the people vote with wallets, the rich get tens of thousands more votes.
A single rich friend will compensate a boycott from thousands of impoverished people who could already barely afford their goods in an instant.
Like, still do it; our actions are a reflection of our values. But don’t make it your only plan.
I hate these actors they use for pictures on the floor of Wall Street. They are just paid actors. They don’t actually do anything.
