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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: November 24th, 2023

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  • Will the bubble eventually burst? I think so. I just think it could stagger on for a few more decades before the belief it has value eventually collapses.

    I don’t think the belief in its value is going to collapse on its own. It is already accepted to have value by enough people, to sustain that belief. (A bit like a religion, if you think about it)

    The downfall of bitcoin will lie in it’s technological design. The whole premise of the underlying blockchain technology relies heavily on Moore’s Law to keep working indefinitely. The complexity of the cryptographic calculations that have to be solved for each BTC transaction increases with each transaction, so it relies on exponential growth of computing power, or rather energy efficency of computing (which is a bit differen than Moore’s Law), to remain useful. The more widely adopted the bitcoin becomes and the more it is traded, the greater the challenge to keep it operational. That is a very impractical limitation for it to be useful as an everyday currency. If, at some point, the time and or cost-efficiency of the crypto-calculations cannot keep up with the number of BTC transactions anymore, the operational cost (or inconvenience) will limit its use. And at that point, I think, the speculation bubble will collapse eventually.

    Now when that is going to happen, I cannot possibly know. I’d invest in leverage products against it, if I did.
    Maybe progress in chip manufacturing will still continue to exceed my expectations. Maybe a breakthrough in quantum computing will enable the BTC to become a universally accepted currency or maybe it will break its underlying cryptography and kill it dead.

    Whatvever it may be, but my prediction is, that if the bitcoin is to collapse, it will probably have a reason rooted in technology.



  • Well, if the market so undervalues that stuff, the logical step would be to go buy other people’s beanie babies for cheap, before people realize how much they are actually worth. And then sell heaps of them for profit, once people come to their senses.

    That’s obviously a very stupid idea, that you could pose to her, and let her argue why she doesn’t do that. Maybe it triggers a realization about how value is constructed.
    But maybe it’s not worth the risk of her taking up on this very stupid idea.