• Defaced@lemmy.world
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    1 month ago

    This is why you’re seeing news articles from Sam Altman saying that AGI will blow past us without any societal impact. He’s trying to lessen the blow of the bubble bursting for AI/ML.

  • rational_lib@lemmy.world
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    1 month ago

    As I use copilot to write software, I have a hard time seeing how it’ll get better than it already is. The fundamental problem of all machine learning is that the training data has to be good enough to solve the problem. So the problems I run into make sense, like:

    1. Copilot can’t read my mind and figure out what I’m trying to do.
    2. I’m working on an uncommon problem where the typical solutions don’t work
    3. Copilot is unable to tell when it doesn’t “know” the answer, because of course it’s just simulating communication and doesn’t really know anything.

    2 and 3 could be alleviated, but probably not solved completely with more and better data or engineering changes - but obviously AI developers started by training the models on the most useful data and strategies that they think work best. 1 seems fundamentally unsolvable.

    I think there could be some more advances in finding more and better use cases, but I’m a pessimist when it comes to any serious advances in the underlying technology.

    • raspberriesareyummy@lemmy.world
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      1 month ago

      So you use other people’s open source code without crediting the authors or respecting their license conditions? Good for you, parasite.

      • rational_lib@lemmy.world
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        1 month ago

        Very frequently, yes. As well as closed source code and intellectual property of all kinds. Anyone who tells you otherwise is a liar.

        • raspberriesareyummy@lemmy.world
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          1 month ago

          Ah, I guess I’ll have to question why I am lying to myself then. Don’t be a douchebag. Don’t use open source without respecting copyrights & licenses. The authors are already providing their work for free. Don’t shit on that legacy.

      • constantturtleaction@lemmy.world
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        1 month ago

        Ahh right, so when I use copilot to autocomplete the creation of more tests in exactly the same style of the tests I manually created with my own conscious thought, you’re saying that it’s really just copying what someone else wrote? If you really believe that, then you clearly don’t understand how LLMs work.

        • raspberriesareyummy@lemmy.world
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          1 month ago

          I know both LLM mechanisms better than you, it would appear, and my point is not so weak that I would have to fabricate a strawman that I then claim is what you said, to proceed to argue the strawman.

          Using LLMs trained on other people’s source code is parasitic behaviour and violates copyrights and licenses.

          • constantturtleaction@lemmy.world
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            1 month ago

            Look, I recognize that it’s possible for LLMs to produce code that is literally someone else’s copyrighted code. However, the way I use copilot is almost exclusively to autocomplete my thoughts. Like, I write enough code until it guesses what I was about to write next. If that happens to be open source code that someone else has written, then it is complete coincidence that I thought of writing that code. Not all thoughts are original.

            Further, whether I should be at fault for LLM vendors who may be breaking copyright law, is like trying to make a case for me being at fault for murder because I drive a car when car manufacturers lobby to the effect that people die more.

            • raspberriesareyummy@lemmy.world
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              1 month ago

              Not all thoughts are original.

              Agreed, and I am also 100% opposed to SW patents. No matter what I wrote, if someone came up with the same idea on their own, and finds out about my implementation later, I absolutely do not expect them to credit me. In the use case you describe, I do not see a problem of using other people’s work in a license breaking way. I do however see a waste of time - you have to triple check everything an LLM spits out - and energy (ref: MS trying to buy / restart a nuclear reactor to power their LLM hardware).

              Further, whether I should be at fault for LLM vendors who may be breaking copyright law, is like trying to make a case for me being at fault for murder because I drive a car when car manufacturers lobby to the effect that people die more.

              If you drive a car on “autopilot” and get someone killed, you are absolutely at fault for murder. Not in the legal sense, because fuck capitalism, but absolutely in the moral sense. Also, there’s legal precedent in a different example: https://www.findlaw.com/legalblogs/criminal-defense/can-you-get-arrested-for-buying-stolen-goods/

              If you unknowingly buy stolen (fenced) goods, if found out, you will have to return them to the rightful owner without getting your money back - that you would then have to try and get back from the vendor.

              In the case of license agreements, you would still be participant to a license violation - and if you consider a piece of code that would be well-recognizable, just think about the following thought experiment:

              Assume someone trained the LLM on some source code Disney uses for whatever. Your code gets autocompleted with that and you publish it, and Disney finds out about it. Do you honestly think that the evil motherfuckers at Disney would stop at anything short of having your head served on a silver platter?

      • drake@lemmy.sdf.org
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        1 month ago

        I completely understand where you’re coming from, and I absolutely agree with you, genAI is copyright infringement on a weapons-grade scale. With that said, though, in my opinion, I don’t know if calling people parasites like this will really convince people, or change anything. I don’t want to tone police you, if you want to tell people to get fucked, then go ahead, but I think being a bit more sympathetic to your fellow programmers and actually trying to help them see things from our perspective might actually change some minds. Just something to think about. I don’t have all the answers, feel free to ignore me. Much love!

        • raspberriesareyummy@lemmy.world
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          1 month ago

          You are right. My apologies, and my congratulations for finding the correct “tone” to respond to me ;) The thing is, I am absolutely fed up with especially the bullshit about snake oil vendors selling LLMs as “AI”, and I am much more fed up with corporations on a large scale getting away with - since it’s for profit - what I guess must already be called theft of intellectual property.

          When people then use said LLMs to “develop software”, I’m kind of convinced they are about as gone mentally as the MAGA cult and sometimes I just want to vent. However, I chose the word parasite for a reason, because it’s a parasitic way of working: they use the work of other people, which for more specific algorithms, an LLM will reproduce more or less verbatim, while causing harm to such people by basically copy-pasting such code while omitting the license statement - thereby releasing such code (if open source) into the “wild” with an illegally(*) modified license.

          • illegal of course only in such countries whose legal system respects copyright and license texts in the first place

          Considering on top the damage done to the environment by the insane energy consumption for little to no gain, people should not be using LLMs at all. Not even outside coding. This is just another way to contribute missing our climate goals by a wide margin. Wasting energy like this - basically because people are too lazy to think for themselves - actually gets people killed due to extreme weather events.

          So yeah, you have a valid point, but also, I am fed up with the egocentric bullshit world that social media has created and that has culminated in what will soon be a totalitarian regime in the country that once brought peace to Europe by defeating the Nazis and doing a PROPER reeducation of the people. Hooray for going off on a tangent…

    • ggppjj@lemmy.world
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      1 month ago

      Not copilot, but I run into a fourth problem:
      4. The LLM gets hung up on insisting that a newer feature of the language I’m using is wrong and keeps focusing on “fixing” it, even though it has access to the newest correct specifications where the feature is explicitly defined and explained.

      • obbeel@lemmy.eco.br
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        1 month ago

        I’ve also run into this when trying to program in Rust. It just says that the newest features don’t exist and keeps rolling back to an unsupported library.

      • rumba@lemmy.zip
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        1 month ago

        Oh god yes, ran into this asking for a shell.nix file with a handful of tricky dependencies. It kept trying to do this insanely complicated temporary pull and build from git instead of just a 6 line file asking for the right packages.

        • ggppjj@lemmy.world
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          1 month ago

          “This code is giving me a return value of X instead of Y”

          “Ah the reason you’re having trouble is because you initialized this list with brackets instead of new().”

          “How would a syntax error give me an incorrect return”

          “You’re right, thanks for correcting me!”

          “Ok so like… The problem though.”

          • rumba@lemmy.zip
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            1 month ago

            Yeah, once you have to question its answer, it’s all over. It got stuck and gave you the next best answer in it’s weights which was absolutely wrong.

            You can always restart the convo, re-insert the code and say what’s wrong in a slightly different way and hope the random noise generator leads it down a better path :)

            I’m doing some stuff with translation now, and I’m finding you can restart the session, run the same prompt and get better or worse versions of a translation. After a few runs, you can take all the output and ask it to rank each translation on correctness and critique them. I’m still not completely happy with the output, but it does seem that sometime if you MUST get AI to answer the question, there can be value in making it answer it across more than one session.

  • Semi-Hemi-Lemmygod@lemmy.world
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    1 month ago

    I wish just once we could have some kind of tech innovation without a bunch of douchebag techbros thinking it’s going to solve all the world’s problems with no side effects while they get super rich off it.

    • ohwhatfollyisman@lemmy.world
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      1 month ago

      … bunch of douchebag techbros thinking it’s going to solve all the world’s problems with no side effects…

      one doesn’t imagine any of them even remotely thinks a technological panacaea is feasible.

      … while they get super rich off it.

      because they’re only focusing on this.

      • azertyfun@sh.itjust.works
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        1 month ago

        Oh they definitely exist. At a high level the bullshit is driven by malicious greed, but there are also people who are naive and ignorant and hopeful enough to hear that drivel and truly believe in it.

        Like when Microsoft shoves GPT4 into notepad.exe. Obviously a terrible terrible product from a UX/CX perspective. But also, extremely expensive for Microsoft right? They don’t gain anything by stuffing their products with useless annoying features that eat expensive cloud compute like a kid eats candy. That only happens because their management people truly believe, honest to god, that this is a sound business strategy, which would only be the case if they are completely misunderstanding what GPT4 is and could be and actually think that future improvements would be so great that there is a path to mass monetization somehow.

        • rumba@lemmy.zip
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          1 month ago

          No no, I disagree I think that shoving AI into all these apps is a solid plan on their behalf. People are going to stop recall and shut it off. So instead they put AI components into every app, It now has the right to overview everything you’re doing and every app collects data on you sending it home to update their personalized models for you so they can better sell you products.

        • peopleproblems@lemmy.world
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          1 month ago

          Yeah my management was all gungho about exploiting AI to do all sorts of stuff.

          Like read. Not generative AI crap, but read. They came to us and said quite literally: “how can we use something like ChatGPT and make it read.”

          I don’t know who or how they convinced them to use something that wasn’t generative AI, but it did convince me that managers think someone being convincing and confident is correct all the time.

          • anomnom@sh.itjust.works
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            1 month ago

            Being convincing and confident without actually knowing is how 9/10s of them make it to the C suite.

            That’s probably why they don’t worry about confidently incorrect AI.

            • Aceticon@lemmy.world
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              1 month ago

              Salesmanship is the essence of management at those levels.

              Which brings us back around to the original subject of this thread - tech bros - in my own experienced in Tech recently and back in the 90s boom, this generation of founders and “influencers” aren’t techies, they’re people from areas heavy on salesmanship, not actually on creating complex things that objectivelly work.

              The complete total dominance of sales types in both domains id why LLMs are being pushed the way they are as if they’re some kind of emerging-AGI and lots of corporates believe it and are trying to hammer those square pegs into round holes even though the most basic of technical analises would tell them that it doesn’t work like that.

              Ultimately since the current societal structures we have massively benefit that kind or personality, we’re going to keep on having these kinds of barely-useful-stuff-insanely-hyped-up cycles wasting tons of resources because salesmanship is hardly a synonym for efficiency or wisdom.

        • Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works
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          1 month ago

          That’s not what’s happening here. Microsoft management are well aware that AI isn’t making them any money, but the company made a multi billion dollar bet on the idea that it would, and now they have to convince shareholders that they didn’t epicly fuck up. Shoving AI into stuff like notepad is basically about artificially inflating “consumer uptake” numbers that they can then show to credulous investors to suggest that any day now this whole thing is going to explode into an absolute tidal wave of growth, so you’d better buy more stock right now, better not miss out.

        • Alphane Moon@lemmy.world
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          1 month ago

          I think Andreessen is lying and the “techno optimist manifesto” is a ruse for PR.

          a16z has been involved in various crypto pump and dumps. They are smart enough to know that something like “play to earn” is not sustainable and always devolves into a pyramid scheme. Doesn’t stop them from getting in early and dumping worthless tokens on the marks.

          The manifesto honestly reads like it was written by a teenager. The style, the tone, the excessive quotes from economists. This is pretty typical stuff for American oligarch polemics, no?

    • oyo@lemm.ee
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      1 month ago

      Of course most don’t actually even believe it, that’s just the pitch to get that VC juice. It’s basically fraud all the way down.

  • Someplaceunknown@fedia.io
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    1 month ago

    “LLMs such as they are, will become a commodity; price wars will keep revenue low. Given the cost of chips, profits will be elusive,” Marcus predicts. “When everyone realizes this, the financial bubble may burst quickly.”

    Please let this happen

  • halcyoncmdr@lemmy.world
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    1 month ago

    No shit. This was obvious from day one. This was never AGI, and was never going to be AGI.

    Institutional investors saw an opportunity to make a shit ton of money and pumped it up as if it was world changing. They’ll dump it like they always do, it will crash, and they’ll make billions in the process with absolutely no negative repercussions.

    • metaStatic@kbin.earth
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      1 month ago

      Turns out AI isn’t real and has no fidelity.

      Machine learning could be the basis of AI but is anyone even working on that when all the money is in LLMs?

      • Joeffect@lemmy.world
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        1 month ago

        I’m not an expert, but the whole basis of LLM not actually understanding words, just the likelihood of what word comes next basically seems like it’s not going to help progress it to the next level… Like to be an artificial general intelligence shouldn’t it know what words are?

        I feel like this path is taking a brick and trying to fit it into a keyhole…

        • sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works
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          1 month ago

          shouldn’t it know what words are?

          Not necessarily, but it should be smart enough to associate symbols with some form of meaning. It doesn’t do that, it juts associates symbols with related symbols, so if there’s nothing similar that already exists, it’s not going to be able to come back with anything sensible.

          I think being able to create new content with partial sample data is necessary to really be considered general AI. That’s what humans do, and we don’t necessarily need the words to describe it.

        • TimeSquirrel@kbin.melroy.org
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          1 month ago

          More like taking a billion bricks and throwing it at that keyhole until one has a random shape that just happens to fit into the keyhole after 50 years of throwing bricks. After that point, every other brick you throw will be shaped similar to that, and most of them will work, until you encounter different keyhole.

          All while consuming the energy equivalent of small countries.

        • metaStatic@kbin.earth
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          1 month ago

          learning is the basis of all known intelligence. LLMs have learned something very specific, AGI would need to be built by generalising the core functionality of learning not as an outgrowth of fully formed LLMs.

          and yes the current approach is very much using a brick to open a lock and that’s why it’s … ahem … hit a brick wall.

          • Joeffect@lemmy.world
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            1 month ago

            Yeah, 20 something years ago when I was trying to learn PHP of all things, I really wanted to make a chat bot that could learn what words are… I barely got anywhere but I was trying to program the understanding of sentence structure and feeding it a dictionary of words… My goal was to have it output something on its own …

            I see these things become less resource intensive and hopefully running not on some random server…

            I found the files… It was closer to 15 years ago…

              • taladar@sh.itjust.works
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                1 month ago

                Also a bit sadistic to be honest. Bringing a new form of life into the world only to subject it to PHP.

              • Joeffect@lemmy.world
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                1 month ago

                I’m amazed I still have the files… But yeah this was before all this shit was big… If I had a better drive I would have ended up more evil than zuck … my plan was to collect data on everyone who used the thing and be able to build profiles on everyone based on what information you gave the chat … And that’s all I can really remember… But it’s probably for the best…

        • Pennomi@lemmy.world
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          1 month ago

          Right, so AIs don’t really know what words are. All they see are tokens. The tokens could be words and letters, but they could also be image/video features, audio waveforms, or anything else.

  • Optional@lemmy.world
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    1 month ago

    “The economics are likely to be grim,” Marcus wrote on his Substack. “Sky high valuation of companies like OpenAI and Microsoft are largely based on the notion that LLMs will, with continued scaling, become artificial general intelligence.”

    “As I have always warned,” he added, “that’s just a fantasy.”

    • Pennomi@lemmy.world
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      1 month ago

      Even Zuckerberg admits that trying to scale LLMs larger doesn’t work because the energy and compute requirements go up exponentially. There must exist a different architecture that is more efficient, since the meat computers in our skulls are hella efficient in comparison.

      Once we figure that architecture out though, it’s very likely we will be able to surpass biological efficiency like we have in many industries.

      • RogueBanana@lemmy.zip
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        1 month ago

        That’s a bad analogy. We weren’t able to surpass biological efficiency in industry sector because we figured out human anatomy and how to improve it. It’s simply alternative ways to produce force like electricity and motors which had absolutely no relation to how muscles works.

        I imagine it would be the same for computers, simply another, better method to achieve something but it’s so uncertain that it’s barely worth discussing about.

        • Pennomi@lemmy.world
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          1 month ago

          Of course! It’s not like animals have jet engines!

          Human brains are merely the proof that such energy efficiencies are possible for intelligence. It’s likely we can match or go far beyond that, probably not by emulating biology directly. (Though we certainly may use it as inspiration while we figure out the underlying principles.)

  • Buffalox@lemmy.world
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    1 month ago

    Seems to me the rationale is flawed. Even if it isn’t strong or general AI, LLM based AI has found a lot of uses. I also don’t recognize the claimed ignorance among people working with it, about the limitations of current AI models.

    • taladar@sh.itjust.works
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      1 month ago

      Can you name some of those uses that you see lasting in the long term or even the medium term? Because while it has been used for a lot of things it seems to be pretty bad at the overwhelming majority of them.

      • Buffalox@lemmy.world
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        AI is already VERY successful in some areas, when you use editing of photos on your phone, the more sophisticated options are powered by AI. Almost all new cars have AI features.
        But it’s completely irrelevant if I can see use cases that are sustainable or not. The fact is that major tech companies are investing billions in this.
        Of course all the biggest tech companies could all be wrong, but I bet they researched the issue more than me before investing.
        Show me by what logic you believe to know better.

        The claim that it needs to be stron AI to be useful is ridiculous.

        • taladar@sh.itjust.works
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          1 month ago

          The fact is that major tech companies are investing billions in this.

          They have literally invested billions in every single hype cycle of the last few decades that turned out to be a pile of crap in hindsight. This is a bad argument.

          • Buffalox@lemmy.world
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            1 month ago

            And which are those? There is no technology all major tech companies have invested in like AI AFAIK.
            Maybe the dot com wave way back, but are you arguing the Internet came to nothing?

    • ohwhatfollyisman@lemmy.world
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      1 month ago

      while you may be right, one would think that the problem lies in the overestimated peception of the abilities of llms leading to misplaced investor confidence – which in turn leads to a bubble ready to burst.

      • elgordino@fedia.io
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        1 month ago

        Yup. Investors have convinced themselves that this time AI development is going to grow exponentially. The breathless fantasies they’ve concocted for themselves require it. They’re going to be disappointed.

  • _bcron_@lemmy.world
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    1 month ago

    It’ll implode but there are much larger elephants in the room - geopolitical dumbassery and the suddenly transient nature of the CHIPS Act are two biggies.

    Third, high flying growth, blue sky darlings, they’re flaky. In a downturn growth is worth 0 fucking dollars, throw that shit in a dumpster and rotate into staples. People can push off a phone upgrade or new TV and cut down on subscriptions, but they’ll always need Pampers.

    The thing propping up AI and semis is an arms race between those high flying tech companies, so this whole thing is even more prone to imploding than tech itself, since a ton of revenue comes from tech. Sensitive sector supported by an already sensitive sector. House of cards with NVDA sitting right at the tippy top. Apple, Facebook, those kinds of companies, when they start trimming back it’s over.

    But, it’s one of those things that is anyone’s guess. When you think it’s not even possible for everything to still have steam one of the big guys like TSMC posts some really delightful earnings and it gets another second wind, for the 29th time.

    Definitely a house of cards tho, and suddenly a lot more precarious because suddenly nobody knows how policy will affect the industry or the market as a whole

    They say shipping is the bellwhether of the economy and there’s a lot of truth to that. I think semis are now the bellwhether of growth. Sit back and watch the change in the wind

  • kromem@lemmy.world
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    1 month ago

    Oh nice, another Gary Marcus “AI hitting a wall post.”

    Like his “Deep Learning Is Hitting a Wall” post on March 10th, 2022.

    Indeed, not much has changed in the world of deep learning between spring 2022 and now.

    No new model releases.

    No leaps beyond what was expected.

    \s

    Gary Marcus is like a reverse Cassandra.

    Consistently wrong, and yet regularly listened to, amplified, and believed.