I think when the hype dies down in a few years, we’ll settle into a couple of useful applications for ML/AI, and a lot will be just thrown out.
I have no idea what will be kept and what will be tossed but I’m betting there will be more tossed than kept.
AI is very useful in medical sectors, if coupled with human intervention. The very tedious works of radiologists to rule out normal imaging and its variants (which accounts for over 80% cases) can be automated with AI. Many of the common presenting symptoms can be well guided to diagnosis with some meticulous use of AI tools. Some BCI such as bioprosthosis can also be immensely benefitted with AI.
The key is its work must be monitored with clinicians. As much valuable the private information of patients is, blindly feeding everything to an AI can have disastrous consequences.
Snort might actually be a good real world application that stands to benefit from ML, so for security there’s some sort of hopefulness.
I recently saw a video of AI designing an engine, and then simulating all the toolpaths to be able to export the G code for a CNC machine. I don’t know how much of what I saw is smoke and mirrors, but even if that is a stretch goal it is quite significant.
and then simulating all the toolpaths to be able to export the G code for a CNC machine. I don’t know how much of what I saw is smoke and mirrors, but even if that is a stretch goal it is quite significant.
<sarcasm> Damn, I ascended to become an AI and I didn’t realise it. </sarcasm>
An entire engine? That sounds like a marketing plot. But if you take smaller chunks let’s say the shape of a combustion chamber or the shape of a intake or exhaust manifold. It’s going to take white noise and just start pattern matching and monkeys on typewriter style start churning out horrible pieces through a simulator until it finds something that tests out as a viable component. It has a pretty good chance of turning out individual pieces that are either cheaper or more efficient than what we’ve dreamed up.
AI is like the calculator for the mathematician. A very useful tool that allows you to be more efficient but is completely useless without someone capable of handling it.
Maybe in some places, but I just found this:
A Market place, where people can generate their ideas of jewellery and order them after. Makes life of goldsmiths and customers way more easy. I do not think aI will leave this project, for example.
Nice replacement topic after the maintainer drama last week
I think the drama came from when the Russian forces started killing civilians 🤷
Not a company following the law.
Sucks to
suckwork for companies run by a wartime government.Yea this is so blatant I’m not even going to click on that shit.
Copilot by Microsoft is completely and utterly shit but they’re already putting it into new PCs. Why?
Copilot + Pcs tho…
Investors are saying they’ll back out if no AI in products. So tech leaders will talk talk and all deal with ai.
AI as we know it does have its uses, but I would definitely agree that 90% of it is just marketing hype
The image generation features are fun, even though you have to browbeat the idiot AI into following the description.
You just haven’t tried OpeningAI’s latest orione model. A company employee said it is soooo smart, can you believe it? And the government is like, goddamn we are so scareded of it. Im telling you AGI december 2024, you’ll will see!
Year of the Linux Deskto…oh wait wrong thread, same same though. If we just wait one more year, we’ll have FULL FSD!
Next year, I promise, is the year we all switch to crypto, just wait!
In just two years, no one will be driving 4,000lb cars anymore, everyone just needs a Segway.
We’re going to have “just walk out” grocery stores in two years, where you pick items off the shelf, and
10,000 outsourced Indians will review your purchase and complete your CC transaction in about a half hour.our awesome technology will handle everything, charging you for your groceries as you leave the store, in just two more years!
Yeah, he’s right. AI is mostly used by corps to enshittificate their products for just extra profit
So basically just like linux. Except linux has no marketing…So 10% reality, and 90% uhhhhhhhhhh…
That says more about your ignorance than anything about AI or Linux.
You’re aware Linux basically runs the Internet, right?
You’re aware Linux basically runs the
InternetWorld, right?Billions of devices run Linux. It is an amazing feat!
Never heard of Android I guess?
So basically just like linux. Except linux has no marketing
Except for the most popular OS on the Internet, of course.
What
Some Linux bad Windows good troll
Did I fall into a 1999 Slashdot comment section somehow?
90% angry nerds fighting each other over what answer is “right”
I admit I understand nothing about ai and haven’t used it in any way nor do I plan to. It feels wrong for me and I believe it might fuck as harder than social media ever could.
But the pictures it creates, the stories and conversations don’t seem like hot air. And I guess, compared to the internet we are at the stage where the modem is still singing the songs of its people. There is more to come.
I heard it can code at a level where entry positions might be in danger to be swapped for ai. It detects cancer visually, recognizes people by the way they walk in China. Also I fear that vulnerable persons might fall for those conversation bots in a world where there is less and less personal contact.
Gotta admit I’m a little afraid it will make most of us useless in the future.
It makes somewhat passable mediocrity, very quickly when directly used for such things. The stories it writes from the simplest of prompts is always shallow and full of cliche (and over-represented words like “delve”). To get it to write good prose basically requires breaking down writing, the activity, into its stream of constituent, tiny tasks and then treating the model like the machine it is. And this hack generalizes out to other tasks, too, including writing code. It isn’t alive. It isn’t even thinking. But if you treat these things as rigid robots getting specific work done, you can make then do real things. The problem is asking experts to do all of that labor to hyper segment the work and micromanage the robot. Doing that is actually more work than just asking the expert to do the task themselves. It is still a very rough tool. It will definitely not replace the intern, just yet. At least my interns submit code changes that compile.
Don’t worry, human toil isn’t going anywhere. All of this stuff is super new and still comparatively useless. Right now, the early adopters are mostly remixing what has worked reliably. We have yet to see truly novel applications yet. What you will see in the near future will be lots of “enhanced” products that you can talk to. Whether you want to or not. The human jobs lost to the first wave of AI automation will likely be in the call center. The important industries such as agriculture are already so hyper automated, it will take an enormous investment to close the 2% left. Many, many industries will be that way, even after AI. And for a slightly more cynical take: Human labor will never go away because having power over machines isn’t the same as having power over other humans. We won’t let computers make us all useless.
Thanks for easing my mind a little. You definetly did in perspective to labor.
You also reminded me I already had my first encounter with a callcenter AI by telekom and it was just as useless as the human equivalent, they seem to get similar training!
I just hope it won’t hinder or replace interhuman connection on a larger scale cause in this sphere mediocrity might be enough and we are already lacking there.
The albeit small but present virtual girlfriend culture in Japan really shocked me and I feel we are not far away from things like AI-droid wives for example.
Just like Furbys
AI is nothing more than a way for big businesses to automate more work and fire more people.
and do that at the expense of 30+ years of power reduction and efficiency gains, to the point that private companies are literally buying/building/restarting old power plants just to cover the insane power demand, because literally operating a power plant is cheaper than paying the energy costs.
For the common every day person its 3d tv and every other bullshit fad that burned brilliantly for all of 3 seconds before snuffing itself out, leaving people to have had paid for overpriced garbage thats no longer useful.
AI is nothing more than a way for big businesses to automate more work and fire more people.
All technology in human history has done that. What are you proposing? Reject technology to keep people employed on inefficient tasks?
At some point people need to start thinking that is better to end capitalism that to return to monke.
Yup.
I don’t know why. The people marketing it have absolutely no understanding of what they’re selling.
Best part is that I get paid if it works as they expect it to and I get paid if I have to decommission or replace it. I’m not the one developing the AI that they’re wasting money on, they just demanded I use it.
That’s true software engineering folks. Decoupling doesn’t just make it easier to program and reuse, it saves your job when you need to retire something later too.
The worrying part is the implications of what they’re claiming to sell. They’re selling an imagined future in which there exists a class of sapient beings with no legal rights that corporations can freely enslave. How far that is from the reality of the tech doesn’t matter, it’s absolutely horrifying that this is something the ruling class wants enough to invest billions of dollars just for the chance of fantasizing about it.
Their goal isn’t to make AI.
The goal of both the VCs and the startups is to make money. That’s why.
It’s not even to make money, they already do that. They need GROWTH. More money this quarter than last or the stockholders don’t get paid.
Growth doesn’t mean revenue over cost anymore, it just means number go up. The easiest way to create growth from nothing is marketing tulips to venture capital and retail investors.
The people marketing it have absolutely no understanding of what they’re selling.
Has it ever been any different? Like, I’m not in tech, I build signs for a living, and the people selling our signs have no idea what they’re selling.
As a fervent AI enthusiast, I disagree.
…I’d say it’s 97% hype and marketing.
It’s crazy how much fud is flying around, and legitimately buries good open research. It’s also crazy what these giant corporations are explicitly saying what they’re going to do, and that anyone buys it. TSMC’s allegedly calling Sam Altman a ‘podcast bro’ is spot on, and I’d add “manipulative vampire” to that.
Talk to any long-time resident of localllama and similar “local” AI communities who actually dig into this stuff, and you’ll find immense skepticism, not the crypto-like AI bros like you find on linkedin, twitter and such and blot everything out.
Yep the current iteration is. But should we cross the threshold to full AGI… that’s either gonna be awesome or world ending. Not sure which.
Current LLMs cannot be AGI, no matter how big they are. The fundamental architecture just isn’t right.
You’re absolutely right. LLMs are good at faking language and sometimes not even great at that. Not sure why I got downvoted but oh well. But AGI will be game changing if it happens.
I know nothing about anything, but I unfoundedly believe we’re still very far away from the computing power required for that. I think we still underestimate the power of biological brains.
Very likely. But 4 years ago I would have said we weren’t close to what these LLMs can do now so who knows.
Based on what I’ve witnessed so far, people will play with their AGI units for a bit and then put them down to continue scrolling memes.
Which means it is neither awesome, nor world-ending, but just boring/business as usual.
The saddest part is, this is going to cause yet another AI winter. The first few ones were caused by genuine over-enthusiasm but this one is purely fuelled by greed.
The AI ecosystem is flooded, we need a good bubble pop to slow down the massive waste of resources that our current info-remix-based-on-what-you-will-likely-react-positively-to shit-tier AI represents.
TSMC are probably making more money than anyone in this goldrush by selling the shovels and picks, so if that’s their opinion, I feel people should listen…
There’s little in the AI business plan other than hurling money at it and hoping job losses ensue.
TSMC doesn’t really have official opinions, they take silicon orders for money and shrug happily. Being neutral is good for business.
Altman’s scheme is just a whole other level of crazy though.
It’s selling the future, but nobody knows if we can actually get there
It’s selling an anticompetitive dystopia. It’s selling a Facebook monopoly vs selling the Fediverse.
We dont need 7 trillion dollars of datacenters burning the Earth, we need collaborative, open source innovation.
The first part is true … no one cares about the second part of your statement.
Seriously, I’d love to be enthusiastic about it because it’s genuinely cool what you can do with math.
But the lies that are shoved in our faces are just so fucking much and so fucking egregious that it’s pretty much impossible.
And on top of that LLMs are hugely overshadowing actual interesting approaches for funding.
Ya, it’s like machine learning but better. That’s about it IMO.
I mean… it is machine learning.
It’s also neural networks, and probably some other CS structures.
AI is a category, and even specific implementations tend to use multiple techniques.
Well there is a very specific architecture “rut” the LLMs people use have fallen into, and even small attempts to break out (like with Jamba) don’t seem to get much interest, unfortunately.
Sure, but LLMs aren’t the only AI being used, nor will they eliminate the other forms of AI. As people see issues with the big LLMs, development focus will change to adopt other approaches.
There is real risk that the hype cycle around LLMs will smother other research in the cradle when the bubble pops.
The hyperscalers are dumping tens of billions of dollars into infrastructure investment every single quarter right now on the promise of LLMs. If LLMs don’t turn into something with a tangible ROI, the term AI will become every bit as radioactive to investors in the future as it is lucrative right now.
Viable paths of research will become much harder to fund if investors get burned because the business model they’re funding right now doesn’t solidify beyond “trust us bro.”
the term AI will become every bit as radioactive to investors in the future as it is lucrative right now.
Well you say that, but somehow crypto is still around despite most schemes being (IMO) a much more explicit scam. We have politicans supporting it.
Sure, but those are largely the big tech companies you’re talking about, and research tends to come from universities and private orgs. That funding hasn’t stopped, it just doesn’t get the headlines like massive investments into LLMs currently do. The market goes in cycles, and once it finds something new and promising, it’ll dump money into it until the next hot thing comes along.
There will be massive market consequences if AI fails to deliver on its promises (and I think it will, because the promises are ridiculous), and we get those every so often. If we look back about 25 years, we saw the same thing w/ the dotcom craze, where anything with a website got obscene amounts of funding, even if they didn’t have a viable business model, and we had a massive crash. But important websites survived that bubble bursting, and the market recovered pretty quickly and within a decade we had yet another massive market correction due to another bubble (the housing market, mostly due to corruption in the financial sector).
That’s how the market goes. I think AI will crash, and I think it’ll likely crash in the next 5 years or so, but the underlying technologies will absolutely be a core part of our day-to-day life in the same way the Internet is after the dotcom burst. It’ll also look quite a bit different IMO than what we’re seeing today, and within 10 years of that crash, we’ll likely be beyond where we were just before the crash, at least in terms of overall market capitalization.
It’s a messy cycle, but it seems to work pretty well in aggregate.
That’s like saying breathing is like turning oxygen into carbon dioxide but better…
After getting my head around the basics of the way LLMs work I thought “people rely on this for information?”, the model seems ok for tasks like summarisation though
It’s good for coding if you train it on your own code base. Not great for writing very complex code since the models tend to hallucinate, but it’s great for common patterns, and straightforward questions specific to your code base that can be answered based on existing code (eg “how do I load a user’s most recent order given their email address?”)
It’s wild when you only know how to use SELECT in SQL, but after a dollar worth of prompting and 10 minutes of your time, you can have a significantly complex query you end up using multiple times a week.
I don’t love it for summarization. If I read a summary, my takeaway may be inaccurate.
Brainstorming is incredible. And revision suggestions. And drafting tedious responses, reformatting, parsing.
In all cases, nothing gets attributed to me unless I read every word and am in a position to verify the output. And I internalize nothing directly, besides philosophy or something. Sure can be an amazing starting point especially compared to a blank page.
the model seems ok for tasks like summarisation though
That and retrieval and the business use cases so far, but even then only if the results can be wrong somewhat frequently.
I really want to like AI, I’d love to have an intelligent AI assistant or something, but I just struggle to find any uses for it outside of some really niche cases or for basic brainstorming tasks. Otherwise, it just feels like alot of work for very little benefit or results that I can’t even trust or use.
I receive alerts when people are outside my house, using security cameras, Blue Iris, CodeProject AI, Node-RED and Home Assistant, using a Google Coral for local AI. That’s a good use case for AI since it avoids false positives that occur with regular motion detection.
I’ve been curious about google coral, but their memory is so tiny I’m not sure what kinds of models you can run on them
It’s useful.
I keep Qwen 32B loaded on my desktop pretty much whenever its on, as an (unreliable) assistant to analyze or parse big texts, to do quick chores or write scripts, to bounce ideas off of or even as a offline replacement for google translate (though I specifically use aya 32B for that).
It does “feel” different when the LLM is local, as you can manipulate the prompt syntax so easily, hammer it with multiple requests that come back really fast when it seems to get something wrong, not worry about refusals or data leakage and such.
Attractive. You got some pretty solid specs?
Rue the day I cheaped out on RAM. soldered RAMmmm
Agreed that’s why it’s so dangerous. These tech bros are going to do damage with their shitty products. It seems like it’s Altman’s goal, honestly.
He wants money/power, and he is getting it. The rest of the AI field will forever be haunted by his greed.
For real. Being a software engineer with basic knowledge in ML, I’m just sick of companies from every industry being so desperate to cling onto the hype train they’re willing to label anything with AI, even if it has little or nothing to do with it, just to boost their stock value. I would be so uncomfortable being an employee having to do this.
For sure, it seems like 90% of ai startups are nothing more than front end wrappers for a gpt instance.
They’re all built on top of OpenAI which is very unprofitable at the moment. Feels like the whole industry is built on a shaky foundation.
Putting the entire fate of your company in a different company (OpenAI) is not a great business move. I guess the successful AI startups will eventually transition to self-hosted models like Llama, if they survive that long.
Most projects I’ve been in contact with are very aware of that fact. That’s why telemetry is so big right now. Everybody is building datasets in the hopes of fine tuning smaller, cheaper models once they have enough good quality data.
My company is realizing that hosting a model which will be private, cost-effective, and performing better than traditional algorithms is like finding a unicorn. Few months back, the top execs were jumping around GenAI like a bunch of kids. Fortunately, the Sr. research head beat some sense into them.
What kind of use-cases was it, where you didn’t find suitable local models to work with ? I’ve found that general “chatbot” things are hit and miss but more domain-constrained tasks (such as extracting structured entities from unstructured text) are pretty reliable even on smaller models. I’m not counting my chickens yet as my dataset is still somewhat small but preliminary testing has been very promising in that regard.
What kind of use-cases was it, where you didn’t find suitable local models to work with ?
Any time you ask very domain specific questions; eg “i have collected some soil samples from the mesolithic age near the Amazon basin which have high sulfur and phosphorus content compared to my other samples. What factors could contribute to this distribution?”, both of-the-shelf local models & OpenAI fail.
The main reason is because these models are not trained on highly-specialized domains of text. Sometimes the models start hallucinating and which reduces our trust upon them.
You’re lucky there’s a higher up that could talk down the even higher ups. Though, sometimes it’s not even about the r&d teams.
I saw company wide HR educational emails or courses telling you how to improve you work quality/efficiency, and one of them tells us to “research AI” and learn how to utilize it, talking about how great it is and improved the work efficiency by 30%. Sure, it has its uses, but I won’t go touting how great it is. And with how ChatGPT works, you have to be the biggest idiot in the world to upload all your sensitive stuff to ChatGPT just for it to make a spreadsheet faster. But without these disclaimers in the email, I doubt regular clerical staff knows about this, and it’s extremely dangerous.
As someone who was working really hard trying to get my company to be able use some classical ML (with very limited amounts of data), with some knowledge on how AI works, and just generally want to do some cool math stuff at work, being asked incessantly to shove AI into any problem that our execs think are “good sells” and be pressured to think about how we can “use AI” was a terrible feel. They now think my work is insufficient and has been tightening the noose on my team.
This. Exactly.
TSMC’s allegedly calling Sam Altman a ‘podcast bro’ is spot on, and I’d add “manipulative vampire” to that.
What’s the source for that? It sounds hilarious
When Mr. Altman visited TSMC’s headquarters in Taiwan shortly after he started his fund-raising effort, he told its executives that it would take $7 trillion and many years to build 36 semiconductor plants and additional data centers to fulfill his vision, two people briefed on the conversation said. It was his first visit to one of the multibillion-dollar plants.
TSMC’s executives found the idea so absurd that they took to calling Mr. Altman a “podcasting bro,” one of these people said. Adding just a few more chip-making plants, much less 36, was incredibly risky because of the money involved.
I think we should indict Sam Altman on two sets of charges:
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A set of securities fraud charges.
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8 billion counts of criminal reckless endangerment.
He’s out on podcasts constantly saying the OpenAI is near superintelligent AGI and that there’s a good chance that they won’t be able to control it, and that human survival is at risk. How is gambling with human extinction not a massive act of planetary-scale criminal reckless endangerment?
So either he is putting the entire planet at risk, or he is lying through his teeth about how far along OpenAI is. If he’s telling the truth, he’s endangering us all. If he’s lying, then he’s committing securities fraud in an attempt to defraud shareholders. Either way, he should be in prison. I say we indict him for both simultaneously and let the courts sort it out.
“When you’re rich, they let you do it.”
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There was a great article in the Journal of Irreproducible Results years ago about the development of Artificial Stupidity (AS). I always do a mental translation to AS when ever I see AI.
and that 10% isnt really real, just a gabbier dr.sbaitso
Idk man, my doctors seem pretty fucking impressed with AI’s capabilities to make diagnoses by analyzing images like MRI’s.
then you are a fortunate rarity. most postd about the tech complain about ai just rearranging what it is told and regurgitating it with added spice
I think that is because most people are only aware of its use as what are, effectively, chat bots. Which, while the most widely used application, is one of its least useful. Medical image analysis is one of the big places it is making strides in. I am told, by a friend in aerospace, that it is showing massive potential for a variety of engineering uses. His firm has been working on using it to design, or modify, things like hulls, air frames, etc. Industrial uses, such as these, are showing a lot of promise, it seems.
thats good. be nice if all the current ai developers would aim that way
he isn’t wrong
If anything he’s being a bit generous.
The only time I’ve seen AI work well are for things like game development, mainly the upscaling of textures and filling in missing frames of older games so they can run at higher frames without being choppy. Maybe even have applications for getting more voice acting done… If the SAG and Silicon Valley can find an arrangement for that that works out well for both parties…
If not for that I’d say 10% reality was being… incredibly favorable to the tech bros
^^
^^^
