Flight path of a plane that took off from Damascus shorty after news broke that Assad left the city towards unknown destination, which might have been Latakia on Syrian coast which is still under SAA control as of now. Terrain in place where flightradar stopped tracking that plane isn’t especially suited for emergency landing

Shortly after crash Syrian Army Command informs officers about fall of the regime https://xcancel.com/Alhadath_Brk/status/1865587913817305454#m

update: it’s not spoofed transponder data or controlled landing, locals reported plane crash in the area. rumors so far, but dawn will break soon in Syria and we’ll know https://xcancel.com/Schizointel/status/1865593800678130081#m

clarification: there’s some chance that Assad went out of Damascus before on other, private jet, so it’s not sure and it’s all conjecture on unproven information

update 2: there’s a claim by Russian media that Assad is in Moscow, so he would have to flee on some earlier plane, but no photos as of now. Still, looked mildly credible at the time

  • Lambda@lemmy.ca
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    14 days ago

    One of the rare cases where I hear of a death and check wikipedia to still see the word “is”. I wonder how long confirmation will take.

      • Lupus@feddit.org
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        14 days ago

        German Wikipedia already has past tense and a small paragraph about Assad leaving the country for an unknown location.

        • BigDanishGuy@sh.itjust.works
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          14 days ago

          Is it sourced properly? Because killing people on wikipedia without sources isn’t helping wikipedia’s credibility.

          • Gurfaild@feddit.org
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            14 days ago

            At least the current version of the article uses past tense when referring to his presidency but doesn’t claim he’s dead.

          • NoneOfUrBusiness@fedia.io
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            14 days ago

            I’m an Arabic speaker and I have no idea; it’s too lacking in context to understand what he’s talking about. He keeps saying “look at this machine”, then starts walking and says “look at these people. We said the airport was friendly and no one believed us”. There are also a few interjections that don’t carry much meaning, but that’s the gist of it.

          • Shit@sh.itjust.worksM
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            14 days ago

            I have no idea. It was titled something like “rebels take over Damascus airport”. Then I went on flight radar and saw the airplane taking off with no destination set.

            I can’t verify how “real” it is other than I saw it on social media right before that airplane took off and saved it. Everything today moved pretty quickly.

            Personally I don’t think Assad was on that flight.

              • Shit@sh.itjust.worksM
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                14 days ago

                I think he left Damascus before homs fell.

                The military didn’t really seem like they wanted to fight for a dictator that already abdicated his throne.

                I think we just get to wait and see. 🙈

  • Morphit @feddit.uk
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    14 days ago

    BBC article mentioning this flight. A tweet from FR24 says that the aircraft “was old with an older transponder generation, so some data might be bad or missing”, that it was “flying in an area of GPS jamming, so some data might be bad”, and that there was not aware of any airports in the area where the signal was lost.

      • BombOmOm@lemmy.world
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        14 days ago

        Yea, it’s amazing how fas this can go down. Been F5ing Live UA map every few hours the last few days and almost every time there were notable changes.

        This also cements Russia’s loss of their only notable Mediterranean port.

    • skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.deOPM
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      14 days ago

      Buk (TEL) lacks a radar. Pantsir or MANPADS lacks range (7km altitude give or take). Either they networked radar to Buk, or made these super old S75 work, or planted bomb onboard like with Prigozhin, or something else. It’s also possible that F35 sneaked around and took it down with A2A missile, not that we’ll ever see it

    • skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.deOPM
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      14 days ago

      that would be pretty stupid so it’s definitely an option

      we can guess that 1. assad was on that plane, and 2. it did something that looked like a bad malfunction and 3. there are rumors of plane crash in the area. maybe it was some stupid reason like mechanical malfunction, or maybe friendly fire from russian S300 at Tartus, or maybe unfriendly fire from whatever SAM HTS now has. or something else

        • Valmond@lemmy.world
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          14 days ago

          Unlikely but not impossible IMO.

          If you want revenge so much you take out a whole plane, you’d done it earlier. But again, maybe there was a lot of panic so surveillance was not that good, and feeling the imminent collaps could have pushed someone over the limit. But I wonder what one man can do in a situation like that.

          So very unlikely until more information I guess.

    • jmcs@discuss.tchncs.de
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      14 days ago

      The plane flew over opposition control territory in Homs, and then it started losing altitude very fast. I think the Russians didn’t have the chance of doing anything funny this time.

  • Milk_Sheikh@lemm.ee
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    14 days ago

    You know when NCD has actual writeups and citations shit is getting real. Getting Wagner coup vibes, what a time to be alive where we can glimpse into the sausage of geopolitics being made in real time.

  • SpaceCowboy@lemmy.ca
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    13 days ago

    Good example of why you don’t trust internet “journalism.”

    It’s just a rumour until you get confirmation from the AP. People tend to think the mainstream media is hiding things, but it’s usually down to them not publishing unconfirmed rumours while the internet will. And here’s an example of why that is. Many of these things wind up being false. It’s better to hear about what actually happened two days later than spend time forming opinions about what might have happened right now.

    • skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.deOPM
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      13 days ago

      you don’t have to get AP article for every claim, but it helps. if you can get geolocated footage, that’s still a bit better than just rumors, many of these maps work this way. this time a few things were missing

    • jimbolauski@lemm.ee
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      12 days ago

      You’re giving journalists way to much credit. The Pulitzer Prize was named after a man who started the Spanish American war by making shit up.

    • nuke@sh.itjust.worksM
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      13 days ago

      It’s better to hear about what actually happened two days later than spend time forming opinions about what might have happened right now

      Lmao do you know where you are??? This is NCD, I have recklessly violent opinions over shit that only exists in my head.

    • skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.deOPM
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      13 days ago

      nah

      it seemed plausible when it happened. i still think it’s likely that that plane crashed, there’s a red dot on FIRMS map for 8.12 around that area that wasn’t there before or after

    • uis@lemm.ee
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      12 days ago

      No! No. No-no-no. Take him and Putin as a gift. Volodin says Putin is national treasure.

    • annHowe@lemmy.zip
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      13 days ago

      I hope he doesn’t get the chance to abscond and is held accountable for his crimes. Not likely to happen but one can dream.